Vladmir Putin is seen to be the quintessential trickster. The image of the unreliable actor colors much of the criticism directed at Putin by pundits and government officials alike, and is regularly followed by a Cold War sneeze. True, his actions are usually unexpected and unexplained. True, he is not going to get an A in moral rectitude. His announcement that the Russian air force would begin to withdraw from Syria was unexpected. Initial surprise was followed by grave suspicion that this was a trick. Mr. Putin simply said that Russian goals for intervening in Syria had been met and it was time to pull back.

It is hard to read Putin, no doubt, and difficult to see where he's going. When a pundit manages to do so, it is worth a read. Paul Pillar (Assymetry in Syria and the Russian Drawdown), who writes for the National Interest and appears regularly at LobeLog, has this to say:

"The latest Russian move should not have been at all surprising. To the extent that it was, this is because of imputing to the Russians motives and thought processes that they do not exhibit.... The announced withdrawal shows that Russian objectives in Syria were never unlimited or grandiose. The objectives had to do with such things as a temporary propping up of the Assad regime to prevent it from collapsing, and asserting a Russian role in helping to determine the future of Syria....

"The Russian moves demonstrate in addition that Putin does not apply to the Syrian situation the kind of framework that many American critics of the Obama administration’s policies apply,

which is to equate activity and especially military activity with the degree to which a nation’s interests are being upheld. A corollary to this framework is the belief that Russian military activity not only always advances Russian interests but also retards U.S. interests, and that a similar inverse relationship applies to U.S. military activity. Putin does not seem to have fallen into that zero-sum mindset, and there is no good reason for the rest of us to either."

Pillar argues that the first priority for Syria is a peace settlement and not a military victory, which in any case is not on the horizon. Putin having propped up the Assad regime in order to bring the Syrian parties to the table is now using Russia's leverage to make sure that Assad is there as well.